Markets exploded last week as softer US labour data all but confirmed what traders have been betting on for weeks — the Fed is now widely expected to begin its rate-cutting cycle at the upcoming September 17th FOMC meeting.
Futures markets now price in a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut.
The result? A tidal wave of bullish momentum across major assets:
- 🟡 Gold surged more than 4.5%, smashing through to new all-time highs
- 📈 US stock indices broke into fresh record territory
- 💵 The USD dropped around 1% from recent highs
Once again, markets are riding the narrative — and this time, the narrative is crystal clear:
“Lower rates are coming.”
Gold: No Ceiling, Just Momentum
With gold now in uncharted territory, technical traders are left without the usual playbook of support/resistance zones. When there’s no overhead supply, it’s more art than science.
So what’s fuelling this move?
- Rate-cut expectations – lower yields make gold more attractive relative to bonds
- Central bank buying – heavy inflows from sovereign institutions throughout 2025
- Safe-haven demand – rising global debt, geopolitical uncertainty, and recession fears
The result?
📊 Gold is up 35% YTD, outperforming both Bitcoin (+20%) and the S&P 500 (+10%).
Personally, I’m not chasing these highs. As I explain in the PropIQ Masterclass, I use a pullback-based trend-following strategy I call the Boomerang Trend. For gold, that means waiting for a return to the 3550 zone before considering a long re-entry.
The Fed’s Tightrope: Soft Jobs, Sticky Inflation
The US Federal Reserve has two core mandates:
- Full employment
- Stable inflation near 2%
Right now, those goals are pulling in opposite directions.
- ✅ Labour market data last week showed clear softening
- ❌ But inflation remains sticky, with CPI expected around 2.9% YoY this Thursday
This week is all about inflation:
- Wednesday: Producer Price Index (PPI)
- Thursday: Consumer Price Index (CPI)
As long as these prints don’t surprise to the upside, the Fed is likely to press ahead with a modest 25bp cut. But if we get a downside shock? Expect whispers of a 50bp “bumper cut” to start gaining traction.
Europe Steps Up: ECB Decision Incoming
On Thursday, the European Central Bank is front and centre.
- ✅ No rate change expected — rates to hold at 2.15%
- 🗣️ Focus will be on forward guidance and Christine Lagarde’s tone during the press conference
As always, it’s not just about what they do — it’s about what they say. I’ll be streaming the decision live, sharing charts, trade setups, and real-time reactions. Be there.
Quick Market Rundown
| Asset | Outlook |
| Gold | All-time highs — waiting for a pullback to 3550 before re-entering |
| USD | Softening on rate-cut bets — inflation data will drive next leg |
| US Indices | Bullish momentum continues as rate optimism fuels rally |
| Key Events This Week | 🔸 PPI (Wed) 🔸 CPI (Thu) 🔸 ECB Decision & Press Conference (Thu) |
Final Thoughts
Last week’s fireworks were triggered by weak job numbers. This week, the real volatility catalyst is inflation. For me, it’s about staying disciplined:
- Wait for pullbacks
- Respect technical roadblocks
- Trust the Boomerang Trend strategy
📺 I’ll be live for the ECB decision — tune in for chart breakdowns, setups, and live trade commentary.
Until then, stay patient and trade smart.
— Andrew Lockwood
Head of Trader Education, Funded Trading Plus
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