CPI is the trigger
Key points first
Bitcoin: looks like it may be forming a temporary floor in the mid-$60Ks, but it’s not a confirmed bottom until it starts printing higher highs and higher lows.
Gold: still has that “safe haven plus central bank bid” feel. Pullbacks are getting bought, but resistance is being watched around the $5,150 to $5,170 zone, with support interest nearer $4,940 to $4,900 if we get a reset.
Macro risk: US CPI is the event. Expect the first move to be messy. The second move is usually cleaner.
Bitcoin: bottom in, or just a pause?
Bitcoin has stopped falling and started basing. That’s step one. The mistake traders make is calling it a bottom just because the selling slows down.
What I’m watching
Structure: I want to see a higher low, then a reclaim of the level that broke. If it can’t reclaim, it’s just consolidation before the next leg.
Correlation: BTC still takes cues from risk. If tech keeps bleeding, crypto rarely runs clean trends.
CPI reaction: if CPI comes in hot and yields jump, BTC can get smacked quickly. If CPI cools and risk sentiment lifts, you’ll see whether this base has teeth.
Working view: it’s a potential base, not a “job done” bottom.
Gold: still the market’s insurance policy
Gold is trading like fear never really left the room. That’s not just headlines. It’s the mix of safety demand, central bank buying, and macro uncertainty.
What I’m watching
Resistance: $5,150 to $5,170 is the “can it push through or does it stall” area.
Support: $4,940 to $4,900 is the zone where dip buyers tend to show up if we get a deeper pullback.
Drivers: real yields and the dollar. If real yields rise fast, gold can retrace sharply. If yields cool, gold usually breathes again.
Working view: dips are still being treated as opportunities, but don’t get complacent up near resistance.
Equities: the market has gone selective
This week felt like a change in tone. Tech took the hit, and the “just buy it because it’s growth” mentality cooled.
That matters for prop traders because when a big theme cracks, correlations spike. Your book can suddenly behave like one trade.
Rates and FX: everything sits under CPI
Ahead of CPI, positioning tightens and liquidity gets thin. That’s when you see the sharp spikes, the fake breaks, and the classic “stop-run then trend” behaviour.
Practical trading point: if you’re trading the release, size down and pre-define invalidation. If you’re not, let the dust settle and trade the post-data structure.
Central banks: policy isn’t the driver, data is
The bigger picture is simple. Central banks are trying to be steady. Markets are trying to front-run the next move. Data decides which side gets punished.
Prop trader takeaway
Today is not about being brave. It’s about being clean.
Fewer trades
Smaller size
Clear invalidation
Protect drawdown first
Bitcoin may be basing, gold may be holding firm, but CPI can flip both in minutes. Don’t donate a week’s risk because you wanted action.
Disclaimer
This market commentary is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It reflects the opinions of the author at the time of writing and should not be taken as financial or investment advice.
Funded Trading Plus operates evaluation and simulated funded challenges, not live trading accounts. All references to trading, strategies, or market opportunities relate to simulated trading environments. Past market performance or individual trader results are not indicative of future outcomes.
About Andrew Lockwood
Andrew Lockwood is a seasoned professional trader with over 40 years of experience in financial markets. Starting his career on the floor of the London International Financial Futures Exchange (LIFFE) in the 1980s, Andrew has traded through multiple market cycles and volatility regimes. Today, he specialises in prop trading strategies, focusing on technical setups, risk management, and trader psychology. As the founder of PropIQ and a leading mentor, Andrew is dedicated to training the next generation of prop traders with proven, real-world trading methods.