Hi there, Happy New Year to all
Markets in 2026: Why Geopolitics and the “Trump Indicator” Are Driving Price Action
I have been trading the markets for over 35 years and mentoring fellow traders for more than 10. I’ve written countless pieces on technical analysis and fundamentals, but these days the market feels like it’s running on a different set of rules. Labour market reports, inflation data, PMI surveys, they have all taken a back seat. The headline driver right now seems to be President Trump. We are one year in with three more to go, and this single man appears to move markets more than any conventional driver ever could. The problem is the Trump Indicator is almost impossible to predict. But here’s the key takeaway and the backbone of everything I teach in PropIQ: it doesn’t matter. Do not try to predict what Trump will do next. Trade what you see, not what you think.
Venezuela and Energy Security: Oil Volatility Without a Clear Trend
Last weekend was a perfect example. News broke that Trump had ordered US forces into Venezuela and President Maduro had been captured. He immediately linked the move to energy security and stability, with a simple message for US oil companies: drill baby drill. Markets opened on edge, and oil prices were expected to drop sharply. Instead, we saw volatility without a clear direction. Even reports of Russian flagged oil tankers being seized barely moved the needle. Traders are clearly unsure how to price the longer term impact of these geopolitical events, and when that happens, prices tend to stall rather than trend.
Stock Market Update: Nasdaq, DAX and FTSE Hold Firm Despite the Headlines
US stocks handled the drama relatively well. Midweek, the Nasdaq briefly hit all time highs before pulling back towards week end. The German DAX also hit record highs, and the UK FTSE continues to grind higher. Tech concerns and AI valuation worries have taken a back seat for now.
Gold Price Surges: The Safe-Haven Trade Leads the Year
Gold remains the investment of choice. It gained 5 percent in the first week of the year, and after ending 2025 almost 70 percent higher, it shows no signs of losing its luster.
Silver Outperforms Again: Industrial Demand Meets Investor Appetite
Silver is performing even better, up 7 percent in the first week of the year and continuing to outperform. After climbing 150 percent last year, silver’s dual role as a precious metal and industrial commodity used in solar panels, electronics, and energy transition projects keeps demand strong.
Forex Market Outlook: Dollar Strength, Weak Yen, and What Yield Differentials Signal
In Forex, the US dollar is firm while the Japanese yen remains soft. This is somewhat surprising given the recent rate hikes in Japan and Governor Ueda’s hints at further tightening. The lesson here is that markets often trade expectations rather than headlines. Yield differentials continue to drive currency flows, and traders need to remain aware of correlations across asset classes.
Bitcoin Update: Crypto Consolidates as Liquidity Flows Elsewhere
Bitcoin continues to trade in a narrow range, lacking the energy it had during previous rallies. With liquidity being pulled toward equities and precious metals, crypto is currently treading water.
Key Event Risk Today: Non-Farm Payrolls and Short-Term Market Volatility
Later today, the Non Farm Payroll report is due. Traders will watch closely for clues about the US labour market and the potential timing of the next Fed rate cut. While the market is more focused on policy direction, geopolitics, and liquidity than any single report, this number could still create short term moves in equities, currencies, and gold.
PropIQ Trading Lessons: Discipline, Stop Losses, and Avoiding Over-Correlated Trades
At PropIQ, I always teach: trade your strategy without fear and avoid being whipped around by news swings. The most successful traders keep risk small so that no single trade can make or break you. Always use stop loss orders and avoid over correlated asset classes. Focus on your edge, follow price action, and respect momentum. If you want a full understanding of what our successful traders are doing, be sure to watch our webinar [link here].
Final Thought: Trade What You See, Not What You Think
Trade what you see. Respect the trends. Manage your risk. And remember, even in the most chaotic environments, the market leaves footprints for those patient enough to follow them.
Disclaimer
This market commentary is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It reflects the opinions of the author at the time of writing and should not be taken as financial or investment advice.
Funded Trading Plus operates evaluation and simulated funded challenges, not live trading accounts. All references to trading, strategies, or market opportunities relate to simulated trading environments. Past market performance or individual trader results are not indicative of future outcomes.
About Andrew Lockwood
Andrew Lockwood is a seasoned professional trader with over 40 years of experience in financial markets. Starting his career on the floor of the London International Financial Futures Exchange (LIFFE) in the 1980s, Andrew has traded through multiple market cycles and volatility regimes. Today, he specialises in prop trading strategies, focusing on technical setups, risk management, and trader psychology. As the founder of PropIQ and a leading mentor, Andrew is dedicated to training the next generation of prop traders with proven, real-world trading methods.