Gold Continues to Roar
Mrs Lockwood: The reverse indicator!
US banks spook the market
The yellow metal notched another 6% gain last week, printing yet another series of all-time highs. Safe-haven flows, central bank buying, trade war headlines, and retail money jumping aboard all kept the momentum going. With geopolitical tension simmering and growth fears spreading, gold remains the go-to asset when traders and investors want protection.
Every dip is being bought. The trend’s strong, and there’s depth behind it, from institutional flows to everyday investors finally piling in. Momentum traders are loving it, but as always, chasing highs can get dangerous. I’ll say it again: the trend is your friend… until it isn’t.
Speaking of that, here’s a quick story. Back in late 2021, I remember standing in the school playground when a few mums and dads started asking me if I’d “heard of Bitcoin.” That’s when I knew the move was getting crowded, and sure enough, about a year later, Bitcoin was down over 70%. Fast forward to this weekend, and my wife, who has zero interest in markets, turns to me and says “we should invest in gold?”
That’s when my radar started buzzing. When non-traders start talking gold, it usually means we’re getting close to overextended territory. I still hold a decent position in gold ETFs, but I’m watching price action closely for any signs of exhaustion.
Oil’s been telling a completely different story.
Crude has slid to six-month lows, weighed down by oversupply and cooling tensions in the Middle East. With no major supply disruptions and OPEC production still high, there’s simply too much oil sloshing around. Demand growth isn’t keeping up, and as geopolitical risk fades, traders are unwinding long positions that were built as “war hedges.”
In short: oil’s losing its fear premium. Unless something flares up geopolitically or OPEC springs a surprise cut, rallies could be limited in the short term.
Bitcoin had its own Wild Ride
Late last week, news broke about bad loans surfacing at several US regional banks, spooking risk sentiment across the board. Bitcoin tumbled 10% to 103, marking a four-month low, before recovering some ground over the weekend. That same banking scare also hit US equities, knocking major indices down around 2.5% before rebounding as calm returned. Still, that kind of price action is a reminder — market confidence remains fragile.
The USD pulled Back Too
Fed Chair Jerome Powell kept up his dovish tone, leaving the door open for accelerated rate cuts. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, there’s now a 98% probability of two more 25bps cuts by year-end. The labor market continues to weaken, and with the ongoing US government shutdown delaying key data like the Consumer Price Index (CPI), traders are flying a little blind. The dollar ended the week about 1% lower from its highs.
Meanwhile, the Japanese yen remains soft. With Sanae Takaichi looking set to become Japan’s next Prime Minister, expectations are growing for more fiscal and monetary stimulus and that means low rates and a weaker yen.
The week ahead:
A busy one for data watchers.
- Canada’s CPI kicks off early in the week and is expected to stay unchanged at 3.0%.
- UK CPI lands Wednesday and is forecast to hold stubbornly high around 4%, inflation just isn’t rolling over as the Bank of England hoped. That could keep pressure on policymakers and the pound.
- Friday brings the big one, the delayed US CPI, which I’ll be streaming live.
- https://youtube.com/live/mVT63hCH2Xk?feature=share
- Expect volatility. Add in a batch of PMI data from across Europe, and we’ve got plenty of catalysts for movement.
The bottom line:
Markets are stretched. The smart play is to stay with the trends but don’t chase the highs. Wait for the pullbacks, they’ll come. Momentum is still your friend, but when everyone’s talking gold, it might be time to think about trimming, not adding.
That’s exactly the mindset we teach in PropIQ, patience, structure, and discipline. It’s not about guessing tops or bottoms, it’s about recognizing when the crowd’s getting loud and managing your exposure smartly.
Stay nimble, stay focused, and as always, trade what you see, not what you think.
Disclaimer
This market commentary is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It reflects the opinions of the author at the time of writing and should not be taken as financial or investment advice.
Funded Trading Plus operates evaluation and simulated funded programs, not live trading accounts. All references to trading, strategies, or market opportunities relate to simulated trading environments. Past market performance or individual trader results are not indicative of future outcomes.
About Andrew Lockwood
Andrew Lockwood is a seasoned professional trader with over 40 years of experience in financial markets. Starting his career on the floor of the London International Financial Futures Exchange (LIFFE) in the 1980s, Andrew has traded through multiple market cycles and volatility regimes. Today, he specialises in prop trading strategies, focusing on technical setups, risk management, and trader psychology. As the founder of PropIQ and a leading mentor, Andrew is dedicated to training the next generation of prop traders with proven, real-world trading methods.